Israel's rationale for launching a large-scale attack on Hezbollah’s pagers remains uncertain, but the operation could have strategic goals, potentially benefiting Israel on multiple fronts.
The coordinated explosions on Tuesday hit Lebanon, particularly in areas associated with Hezbollah, the powerful militant and political organization. The blasts, which specifically targeted pagers, resulted in at least 12 fatalities, including children, and left over 2,700 injured. Another wave of explosions on Wednesday killed nine more people and injured hundreds.
While Israel has not officially taken responsibility, Hezbollah accused Israel of orchestrating the attacks. Two U.S. officials confirmed to NBC News that Israel was behind the operation. This comes as tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have escalated, following Hamas’ October 7 attack and Israel’s military actions in Gaza.
Israel's military objectives have recently centered on ensuring the safety of civilians displaced by clashes with Hezbollah along its northern border with Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant indicated that military action would be necessary to achieve this.
The timing of the pager operation remains unclear. U.S. and Western officials speculate that it could either be a precursor to larger military operations or a response to Hezbollah growing wary of the devices. Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck International, suggested that Israel may have acted out of concern it could lose access to this valuable asset.
Israel’s Potential Gains
Horowitz highlighted several advantages Israel could reap from the operation. First, the physical harm inflicted on Hezbollah militants: Lebanon’s hospitals are dealing with a flood of patients, many suffering from injuries to their hands and faces. Destroying a large number of pagers could also severely disrupt Hezbollah's communication network, hindering the activities of key commanders.
These pagers, likely used for emergency communication in the event of war, would have been in the possession of Hezbollah's leadership, from low-ranking field officers to top commanders. By disabling them, Hezbollah's ability to coordinate its military efforts could be severely impacted.
Additionally, this attack may reveal Israel’s intimate knowledge of Hezbollah’s internal logistics, indicating a deep level of infiltration into the group’s supply chain.
While the broader objectives of the operation remain unknown, it could signal Israel’s intent to weaken Hezbollah's operational capabilities ahead of a potential larger conflict.
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